What Does This All Mean?

As of 21 September, 2008,

by

Paul S. Felix

 

In our last edition I explored some of the ramifications of a down turning economy on Las Vegas and through that, on us. I stated, in part, “The people who still go to Las Vegas…will see a trend of the Vegas way of doing things bending sharply back towards what has come to be called “Old Vegas”.… The “Comp” clampdown of recent years should roll back…. It will be easier to get free room nights, limo rides, meals, show tickets, ad nauseum…Seasoned Vegas visitors who are old enough to remember some of the “old days”…and long to a return to those days, could well see their wishes come true. Those who haven’t experienced such an atmosphere… will soon come to appreciate it for what it is; the original expression of Las Vegas’ philosophy that every guest is to be treated as special; pampered and appreciated. Once they get a taste, they won’t want anything less.”

 

I stand by those words. Using myself as a case example, I’ve already received enough offers from various properties. Were my wife and I able to jump on a plane before the end of September, we could spend an entire week in Las Vegas, seven full days, and only pay for one night hotel, and that night would be discounted. Our total travel and travel cost for the two of us, for a full week, would be under $500.00. That’s mind-blowing. Other discounts and freebies would add to the savings. Both my wife and I have birthdays around the Labor Day time frame and we could still avail ourselves of some of the various birthday specials some properties still offer even in late September. And the hits just keep on coming. We could have a very pleasant time for perhaps the least money we’ve spent in the last 15 or more years.

 

I supported my contentions by showing the declines in the numbers of people going to Las Vegas.

I pointed out, in part, “From March through May, 2007, 67 new reviews were posted. This averages out to about 23 reviews each month… As of June of 2008, the number of average monthly reviews is now down to around 15 or a decrease of over 30%...” That number continues into this quarter and shows no signs of improving soon.

 

To paraphrase the famous movie line, “Buckle your seat belts, boys and girls, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.”

 

All that said; this quarter shows (46) new reviews for the 33 properties examined here.

 

RATE: How many visitors have they had this month? How popular are they? Average 70

	Winner					Average					Losers
1	Flamingo	141	5		12	Paris	78	2		23	Wynn LV	56
2	Luxor	123	3		13	Tropicana	73	1		24	Circus Circus	56
3	Orleans	117	4		14	Harrah’s	72	4		25	Sahara	55	2
4	Imperial Palace	117	2		15	Stratosphere	69			26	Riviera	49
5	Planet Hollywood	105	3		16	Bellagio	66	1		27	Caesars	47	1
6	MGM Grand	94	3		17	Rio	65			28	Gold Coast	41	1
7	Golden Nugget	94	1		18	NYNY	65	1		29	LV Hilton	35	1
8	Bally’s	94	1		19	Mirage	62	1		30	Four Queens	33
9	Monte Carlo	86	1		20	Mandalay Bay	61	3		31	Palms	27
10	Excalibur	86	2		21	Venetian	57	1		32	G.V.R.	21
11	TI	78	2		22	Fitzgerald’s	57			33	Hard Rock	17

WINNERS: As popularity goes, Flamingo has captured the long-term leadership. For quite some time Luxor was King of the Hill in this category, but their eventual announcement of a complete overhaul in theme – that the outside will still look like ancient Egypt but the inside will go ultra contemporary – has cut Luxor’s throat and left The House That Bugsy Built in the lead, with no real competition as a favorite destination for visitors. Much of this lead is engendered by Flamingo’s Location (see below) which is mid-Strip and thus roughly equidistant to all the action available. The same concept explains Imperial Palace’s #3 slot. Let’s face it, Imperial isn’t the greatest place around. Just look at their ratings below; it’s easy to see that they don’t rate well much of anywhere. Their best attribute may well be where they’re located. Flamingo isn’t as “good” as MGM Grand, Venetian, Bellagio, Wynn, or any of the other self-styled “Mega Resorts” by any means. Though it may have once been the premiere place to go, it is long past its prime. But it still draws people in. There’s historical interest, surely. But their Location is of seminal value right now, and may well prove to be their salvation long-term. As financial woes increase throughout the nation, Flamingo’s and IP’s location is likely to save their bacon. Their central access to so many other places – the “walking distance” phrase comes to mind – could make the difference between solvency and the casino graveyard. I will predict now that some of the properties in this column will begin shifting position soon. The further from mid-Strip a property is, the less popular it’s likely to become. This bodes ill for Orleans and Golden Nugget most particularly. They are the only non-Strip properties in this column. I can easily see their popularity score decline just simply because of the inconvenience that distance will attach to accessing them. If it happens, you heard it here first.

 

AVERAGE: Harrah’s continues as Most Mediocre, or the closest to exact average. This middle position can be important in that potential visitor decision-making can begin here. Does one follow the pack and go to the more popular properties? Or, does one depart from the norm and visit the “lesser” properties just for variety? It’s an individual call, of course, but an important one. Harrah’s represents the dividing line between those two calls.

 

LOSERS: When we see the Venetian and Green Valley Ranch bunched with Circus and Sahara on the same list we can surmise there is more involved than just how spiffy the place looks. The reviews below tell a better tale and help the decision making process. This bottom column shows properties that don’t get rated often, or well. They’re not very popular for reasons explained in categories to come. Read and be prepared.

 

OVERALL: Who’s the best of the best? Average = 6.99

	Winner					Average					Losers
1	Orleans	7.95	0.01		12	Four Queens	7.36			23	Tropicana	6.95	0.00
2	Mandalay Bay	7.63	0.01		13	Venetian	7.33	0.03		24	Imperial Palace	6.83	-0.01
3	Mirage	7.59	-0.03		14	Fitzgerald’s	7.24			25	LV Hilton	6.81	-0.02
4	MGM Grand	7.57	0.04		15	Harrah’s	7.23	-0.01		26	Palms	6.54	0.01
5	Bellagio	7.56	0.02		16	Golden Nugget	7.15	0.02		27	Excalibur	6.46	-0.06
6	NYNY	7.55	0.18